New04/11/2006
Ed note - Pure rant mode full on, And yes there are misspellings in here....
One of my financial news letters that has done me quite well in the last three years is taking $3 a gallon gas as a given this summer. But there are two scenarios that would push it to $6 a gallon and another to +$9 a gallon. This could all happen in a matter of a few weeks.
What would you do? Would you stand for it? Who would you hold accountable?
Paul
I'llive you 2 examples of what will push it above $4+ a gallon....
1: Its a given. NOT A DAMN THING has been done to New Orleans and it will get another Class 5 hurricane. Not really a reason to bring up gas but there is a few refineries there and all the damages rigs from last season are still getting repairs. Having lived though gas shortages for MONTHS after Ivan and a few other hurricanes while living in Pcola I know this will help.
2: We decide we are the BIG BOYS on the block and decide to preemptive attack Iran. Enough said on that one.
There nothing as far as would you 'stand for it' you really have no choice in the matter. Big Oil makes lots of money off jacking the price of oil up. State/Fed make big money off of raising tax's on oil.
I'm looking at getting a Full Size Bronco or Expedition that will get 15mpg on a good day.... Yea I would be F**** but you have to be 'well off' to afford a hybrid (OK better off then my credit rating allows lol)
Gas at $6 or higher or god forbid $9 a gallon. Would stop the country in its tracks. I like most people 'budget' fuel into their weekly/monthly expenses and paying for 2 cars for commuters going in opposite directions wouldn't be possible...
Paul please share with the peanut gallery your incite and source.....
Chuck
"I'm looking at getting a Full Size Bronco or Expedition that will get 15mpg on a good day.... Yea I would be F**** but you have to be 'well off' to afford a hybrid (OK better off then my credit rating allows lol) "
???
A full sized Explosion or Bronco will (1) cost more than a hybrid out of pocket and (2) cost more than $3,000 over the cost of a hybrid per year to run at current gas prices.
Seth Kuiper
The cost of gas I agree with. My last bronco got 8mpg on a good day (351 5.8L)
But the bronco I'm looking at getting now is a 93 is $3800 or the Expedition is a 97 and is $8900 .... Both will still be more then $3000 a year to operate as far as gas goes. So the upfront cost is less then a hybrid....but cost per year would be way more!... but more fun to drive!
Chuck
Just put a Folger's can on the back of that Civic and you'll get an x-tra 25 horses :-)
Seth Kuiper
Gas is only a whisker from $3.00 a gallon here in California today. I paid $2.79 a gallon this weekend at Costco, and when I was in the mountains this weekend the cheapest I saw was $2.99/gallon.
I drive 2-3,000 miles a month on business alone. I get reimbursed 44.5 cents per mile. What am I going to do about it?
If I get my way I'm bringing home an Excursion. Y'all are probably scratching your head about now thinking Jim is nuts, but the diesel version I'll be bringing home will get about 20 MPG on the road, and my fuel cost will be about .14/gallon because I'm going to convert it to run on vegetable oil. If I don't do the Excursion I'll be buying a Mercedes diesel. I just can't bring myself to drive a Jetta despite their incredible mileage and surprising performance. I can't bear the thought of returning to a compact car.
JMP
p.s. Look for Iran to be scraped and paved as parking for Iraq and Kuwait here in the not too distant future. It's a foregone conclusion. You don't tug on Superman's cape. You don't spit into the wind. You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger, and you don't suggest that Israel has no right t
Jim
Big oil and the government make a good $ on a barrel of crude. Who do you think, "greases" the politicians pockets? With that said, what can the average person do? They have us by the tentacles!
Did anyone see what Brazil did with sugar cane? Who do you think would be hurt by following in their footsteps? Food for thought...
k mier
can handle $9 a gallon. Not happily but I can handle it. I’d drive the TDI a whole lot more and the Beemer’s a whole lot less.
Who would I hold responsible? The tree huggers that won’t let us drill in ANWAR. Congress (both Democrats and Republicans) for not forcing the big three to have higher CAFÉ standards. Hugo Chavez.
Paul L Fisher
The source is Richard Maybury author of US & World Early Warning report.
The $6 a gallon is if we attach Iran, $9 a gallon is if we use nukes to do it.
He runs about $90 correct over the last 20 years or so in his world wide political predictions.
Paul
I'm not worried. I've got a Plan to convert my Lightning to Super Gas
Mileage Mode. I'm putting Magnets on my Fuel Lines and getting this
Secret Intake Twister. My Mileage is going to Triple! (that would be 27
city)
Oh Yeah - Helium in the Tires too. Those Monster 275's can hold enough
cubic feet to almost lift off on a windy day. Great Weight Reduction.
It will compliment all the Hot Air in the Cab.
;-)
--
Eric Lehmann
I was driving in Europe a few weeks ago and paid an average of about $6 gallon (1.4 euros/liter) with the lowest octane being about 95. Cost about $55 each time to fill up the tank in my Opel compact rental car and the mileage wasn't very good either. (maybe it had something to do with tach being nearly pegged all the time at 120 mph) ;-) The gas prices didn't seem to be stopping anyone from driving though but there sure were more cars running diesel. Most cars were about the size of a Fiesta or Metro. Saw a lot of the little Smart cars running around Paris and I really liked them. Should be available in the US now.
Would have loved to have had the GTO on the autobahn for a bit!
Wendell
91 5-spd
04 GTO
My theory is that the oil companies set the prices to whatever they want. They make the prices high enough that they continue to make record profits no matter what else is happening in the world, but low enough that the public doesn't revolt. In other words they try to set the price low enough to keep the crowds of peasants with torches and pitchforks away from their gates.
If the price hits $6 here, you'll see lots of people getting out their torches and pitchforks.
they have been high over there for years.
they just have come to live with it.
Big reason so many diesels and tiny cars.
US break the love affair with big gas guzzlers and then they have cleared a big hurdle.
The Auto Conference I was at in Dearborn spoke to this exact thing.
Clare
__________________________________________________________________________
While that may be somewhat true, Congress reported after the hearings that the record profits were based on record demand (say SUV's for example). The average big oil company rate of return was about 8% which is actually pretty fair for a business owner. Back when my company was regulated we were guaranteed a 10-12% return. I really don't like paying more for gas but it's as much the average "all consuming Americans" fault as it is the oil companies IMO.
Wendell
I've been bitchin'' that the SHO V8 should have been 4L maybe 4.2L, now I'm pleased with the displacement.
Not that any smaller would be any better yet.
Death of the suburban mama's SUV?
Tim
Look out...Bankruptcy and the welfare line...then I'll migrate to Mexico and burn
cow poop to stay warm if it gets chilly.
I’ve already cut back a lot on my wasted miles. By wasted I mean driving around just to drive around. I just don’t do it anymore.
In my business, I drive a lot plus my wife commutes to work about 20 miles and my son commutes to school about 30 miles.. I’ve seen my gasoline bill go from around $300 to over $700 in a year! That’s more than my house payment.
That’s also after shunning a V-8 4X4 Explorer (10 mpg city, 18 hwy) for an WAD
Freestyle (17-23, they say—getting closer to 17-20). I now have two 4-cylinnder cars which get great mileage but my ‘04 F-150 just guzzles the stuff. We only use it now when we actually need to haul something.
As of 11:00 tonight when I went to fill up one of the cars ($42), I noticed that regular was now at 3.029, plus at 3.229, and premium at 3.429! It was 2.799, 2.899, and 2.999 on Saturday.
I do well, but I’m not rich. If I were rich, I’d go and buy a big SUVA and a Hemi Charger and just thumb my nose at the big oil companies. As it is now, we’re back to where we were in 1972-80. Folks will continue to buy cars that are fuel inefficient and sooner or later, performance cars will go the way they did in the earlier era when performance went away.
I hope it doesn’t happen.
Ron
I don't think they'll go away... technology has come a long way since those days.
My other car is a Saab 9-2x, and with the Cobb Tuning relish I've done, it has 260 or so ponies and still consistently gets 23-25 mpg.
Amazing what you can do with a turbo.
Austin
Ten to one his truck does even better just after he washes it :)
Best Regards,
Doug
*I Have no idea what that means - U.L.
I should have qualified my statement...American performance cars may well go
away. Why? It's just the way it goes in this country. I can remember, in
1979, driving home from Camp Henry Kaufmann (in Pennsylvania) on a Sunday in
my new '79 5.0 Mustang Ghia when the gas gauge hit the "E." I was 70 miles
from home and all gas stations were closed. I talked an old timer in
Flatwoods, WV into giving me some gas. It was illegal for him to sell it,
so he took me behind his building and brought me a gallon at a time. He
gave me three gallon and said that was all he could chance giving me. I got
home. I ran out of gas entering the driveway. That summer the Ford and
Chevy dealerships couldn't keep Chevelles and Pintos in stock. But gas
became plentiful again and things turned out alright.
During that time an old college roommate of mine from Texas told me why the
oil business would never be "down." His father was in oil (Exxon, if I
remember correctly) and he was attending college in WV because West Virginia
Tech had one of the finest engineering schools in the nation. His comment
was never underestimate the ignorance of the American public. They will
never conserve--it's not in our nature.
Recently he's told me that one of the things keeping gasoline (and oil in
general) prices up is the rabid thirst of the American public for oil. A
more mature, sensible man says that our fascination with big vehicles and
SUVs will assure oil companies of big profits. And, like me, he smells the
end of the performance car fever we've seen these last ten years. Why?
Although Americans are now saying they'll pay whatever to have their
mobility, that only goes so far. When it cuts into the budget so bad that
they have to sacrifice things to drive, they will go smaller and more fuel
efficient, bringing oil prices down so we can go into the same cycle again.
Interesting theory.
As for turbos, I agree. Mr. Porter was pretty smart with his Subaru Wagon.
It opened my eyes too late. But, we also have some other good choices that
are not big blocks and not gas guzzlers. My Acura TSX nets 30-33 on the
highway and has as much pep at high RPM as my old V8 SHO.
So, is it, as Rob (my friend) says a cycle? We'll see.
Ron
I thought high insurance rates killed performance cars the first time.
I don't know what will happen in the future. Big SUV's and pickups are such
a part of most people's mindsets that it will be hard to get rid of them. I
work with 2 guys, one has owned Explorers for the past 10 years or so. He
rarely carries anything other than he and his wife, but he doesn't even
consider a sedan. The other guy had a Navigator. When that lease was up he
didn't consider anything else but SUV's. Same thing- he and his wife and an
infant daughter.
I was trying to explain to my daughter what a Honda Prelude was, and why it
was. I told her it had to do with the image of 4-door cars back then. The
4-door car was the mom's family car, so nobody who was image conscious
wanted one, hence the invention of the 2-door. Nowadays the same thing is
happening except it is the sedan and minivan that are shunned in favor of
SUV's. In the big city there are a lot of big pickups and SUV's, and I dare
say maybe 10% of their drivers can really justify driving one. The rest
drive them for image purposes only. A 4-door sedan would be safer,
smoother, quieter, more economical, maybe faster. Why don't people
recognize this, they don't because of the tough guy image of the SUV. They
don't want to drive a wimpy sedan, and after all they can drive whatever
they darned well please even if it costs all of us with higher gas prices.
Maybe performance cars will take a hit. After all people who drive them are
out of the mainstream, and if they have to justify driving them even with
high gas prices, they will bail and pick a different vehicle. People with
SUV's don't have to justify driving them because everybody else is driving
them too. Well it's not that way completely- the standout big vehicles like
Hummers will take a hit, maybe Navigators too, but the others are just too
popular.
Ride my Giant Bike or finally rebuild the carb in my 1969 Honda CL 70 and finally license it. Kinda puny but its still neat and was bought new by my grandfather. Plus I'm close
enough to ride it to campus.
Is it okay to attach pictures? Forgive me for my ignorance.
Paul
I thought high insurance rates killed performance cars the first time.<<
Don't bet the farm that won't happen again. I'm serious.
I came into the insurance business in 1986, after the surcharges on
performance vehicles had long since vanished. My predecessor tells me that
in the 60's companies used to assign a surcharge based on horsepower which
sometimes was 40% or more. At some point (and I don't know where that point
was since it was already in place when I started), they totally went to
"cost new" to determine comprehensive and collision rates. As one insurance
professional said, "the high performance cars had morphed into being the
most expensive cars. The days or Road Runners and other cheap performance
cars were gone as manufacturers learned to add extras to cars so that a
higher bottom line could be made on performance cars." It worked well.
At least until now. I was reading through industry mail the other day and
ran into a white paper on how insurance rates will change in the future. As
companies have gone to using credit scores and other new methods to
determine rates, horsepower might just move into that equation as well. In
fact, just as liability rates have changed (it used to be that liability was
the same on every car and truck, but now it's rated according to what kind
of vehicle you drive. SUV's have the highest rate due to their size--and
that includes pickup trucks), it appears that companies are becoming
increasingly leery of high horsepower cars. Looks like 300 HP may be the
breaking point with cars like the Chrysler Hemi-engine cars and the Pontiac
GTO as well as the Mustang GT and Shelby GT 500's getting surcharges.
The problem, according to what I read, is the large number of high risk
drivers--young people--getting these cars. Our great income explosion
allows parents to buy Little Johnny a big, fat bomb of a car to drive around
and wreck. It has nothing to do with oil prices, but it's the same thing
that happened in the 60's and 70's.
Some will say that this time is different, but being a history major and a
student of history, I know that it really isn't that different. Just as
we've seen prices of gasoline rise with big consumption, we'll see insurance
rates climb as younger drivers get their hands on higher horsepower cars.
Look for it to happen. We SHO owners have been the beneficiary of low
insurance rates because of the "cost new" rule of rating automobiles. With
cheap performance cars in the hands of younger people (like the Dodge
Caliber SRT-4 and others), we just might see surcharges again. And if we
do, look for Detroit to call in the dogs and make uninspiring cars again.
Ron
What kind of camper are you hauling with a Subaru? Must be very small.
Being a guy that owns not one, but two full size gas guzzling SUV's, I can say that the $3 a gallon gas is typical of this time of the year: vacations are starting, and more people are taking driving vacations since 9/11. It's nature of economy. Demand goes up, and so do prices because it's a commodity we can't do without at this point.
Do I wish we had bought a diesel Excursion? No. Comparing costs, the diesel would have run me about $5-$6k more than my V10 did. In normal commuting, my wife does very short drives. The 44 gallon
thankful lasts her almost three weeks. Sure, when we start towing the camper it'll cost more, and our trip to VA this summer will cost a little more for fuel, but it's still cheaper than flying, once you account in not having to pay for hotels, rental cars, and all the other fun stuff that comes with that. Plus, with a truck this big and a camper, I can take all my shit with me, should Iran decide to nuke us back, I'll be set to live wherever I end up. :)
-Bob
Wow! You must have a good one if it goes that far on a gallon of oil.....
Paul L Fisher
Harley-Davidson 1200 Sportster: ~50 mpg
Dave Garber
**You are such a sho off***
Carter,
Why in the world would reducing the size of the intake area reduce gas mileage any, instead of causing a too-rich fuel scenario? I am not trying to start an argument, but didn't catch any of your explanation why this would work at all. I would be willing to bet huge sums of money that this guy isn't getting a single MPG better if he would just drive like he did before. He WANTS his "mod" to work, and thus is driving different. And in any case, after many years of experience with big GM engines, there is NO way you can even drive like you have an egg under the gas and brake pedals and get 50% increase in overall mileage. No driving tricks can do that much or close to it with those engines and that big of a vehicle!
This guy is probably going to sell "turbo" exhaust tips next.
Don Mallinson
Not that I am towing one, but the towing capacity on the LGT is 2700#. Not bad for a 2.5L station wagon. Besides, I prefer tenting, and with the AWD it can go into very remote locations.
I really don't have a problem with people who drive SUVs because they have to (like construction workers who need the utility or sports coaches who have to haul equipment and teams around), but this is very infrequent. I did my own unscientific observation today. Out of over 100 SUVs I saw on my way to work only 1 had more than one person in it! A mere handful were obviously construction/ utility workers, the rest were everyday-commuter types who had no apparent reason for using such a vehicle on a daily basis. If you want to take the occasional trip and have some extra space, it'd be much more
conscientious to rent an SUV or van for the week or two a year you need one, IMHO.
It may be your pocketbook, but it is all of our environment (and before anyone starts calling me political names, I am a conservative when it comes to the finances and the environment - conservation is a part of conservatism). It appears that most SUV owners are just being wasteful because they can, and that is a damn shame!
Cheers,
Seth
We're talking 24 mpg average mixed for the LGT wagon (about 26 for the non-turbo), not 10 mpg (Explosion, Humm-rr). Since I am planning to have a family, I thought it was appropriate (and a Metro would not make it the 33-mile commute in the Michigan snow).
Imp not saying Civic Hybrids and Smart Cars for everyone, but a little responsibility...
As for the "demand" driven society, the purchase of vehicles is skewed by tax breaks afforded to people who purchase large SUVs (which is much greater than the hybrid tax break that is soon to die). Is this true capitalism? Here's the solution: if the government wants to consider vehicles over 6,000# "trucks" and give them business tax breaks accordingly, make them adhere to truck speed limits - 55mph will scare more people away than $3 gas. "I can't drive 55!!!".
Cheers,
Seth
Ya, but it's all relative. 24 MPG is great compared to 10 in the Hummer (which isn't a very good example IMO), but not that great next to the 40+ that a Metro/Moped/Whatever will get. And I disagree about the winter thing. I drove crap worse than a Metro that in my younger days - never once got stuck here in Pittsburgh (and our winters aren't exactly a cake walk).
As I said, it either applies across the board or it doesn't. I'll bet the guy in the SUV can name just as many valid (to him anyway - and frankly that's all that matters here right?) reasons for owning it as you can for owning the LGT. Since you have a turbo, should you be in a different category too? And if not, why? Even if it the penalty is only 1 mpg, it's still 1 mpg you're giving up for "frivolous" reasons?
I know where you are coming from and I get what you are trying to say. All I'm saying is that it can and should be applied equally across the board.
Dave Garber
Damn I wish I had the time to discuss all this (work is getting in the way). I understand the whole slippery slope argument - hell, I was a philosophy major in undergrad. However, I am talking about "reasonable" in more of a legal sense of the word. I'll have to leave it at that, maybe we can pick up this discussion over some brews at Lapeer after "frivolously" wasting some petrol :-)
Cheers,
Seth
Sounds like a plan! :)
Agreeing with Garber is almost as nauseating as agreeing with Porter, however, Seth, I see no reason you should be wasting fuel driving a LGT when you could be driving a metro. You are acting irresponsible wasting our natural resources. As for kids, you shouldn’t burden us with them either. A metro actually does quite well in the snow. Just get some Nokian or Blizzak tires. I know that sounds ridiculous but once we restrict freedoms, where will it stop? (I do hope you realize this prior paragraph is not my true feelings).
As for the tax breaks for large SUV’s, they are only for businesses. While it does seem kind silly, it was designed for people that used their vehicles for work. The automakers noticed the loophole of the 8500 pound GVW and also noticed that the behemoths they made fit into that.
I also agree with Seth that Congress should make it easier for people to buy fuel efficient cars. The Hybrid tax credit doesn’t apply to other high MPG vehicles, such as diesels. In addition, all the money we are putting into ethanol when it takes a barrel of oil to create a barrel equivalent of ethanol is just plain silly when biodiesel is available today.
Paul L Fisher
Your office view is nice. Got a bite for you and your boss. Bigger pay raises (and details from my work email) coming.
Congrats!
As for me; At $6/gal I'd telecommute more often, maybe pay for an extra phone line dedicated to work. As it is, I only spend ~1/3 of my work week at my desk. Life would go on, my poor contractors would bitch even more than normal.
Ryan
here’s been a bunch of articles on why this works in Brazil and wouldn’t work here. Do a Google if you’re interested. Key thing is that they have about 10% of the vehicles that we do, and don’t drive as much.
Ron Porter
Big oil and the govt make a good $ on a barrel of crude. Who do you think, "greases" the politicians pockets? With that said, what can the average person do? They have us by the tentacles!
Did anyone see what Brazil did with sugar cane? Who do you think would be hurt by following in their footsteps? Food for thought...
k mier
It’s not Congress. EPA regs won’t do it. It’s the typical liberal attitude that the American public is stupid and they need to make decisions for us.
Ron Porter
They are like any other business in our economy. The price is set as high as practical. Their profit margins are not that high, even considering the tremendous capital investment needed in that industry.
If the profits are that good, why aren’t their stock prices through the roof??
Ron Porter
You have to be careful with that mindset Seth as it can be applied across the board. You could have bought a non-turbo Legacy(s) and saved a few more gallons of the rest of us. Better yet, you could have bought a used Metro 3 cyl, or a Festiva, or a Moped. You could 'rent' a wagon for when you really need one.
Everything in a democratic/capitalist society is consumer/demand driven. As long as people are buying SUV's and buying gas at ~$3.00 a gallon, the market will provide. When demand/supply goes away, the market will adjust.
Dave Garber
Would a five-digit raise be $999.99?? ;-)
Congratulations!!
Now, screw the baseball game and come to Lapeer!!
Ron Porter
Excellent point, Ron. The people who whine about "record profits" for the oil industry should take advantage and invest in Exxon. Not takin' a swing at you, Billy, I just don't see rising gas prices as lining the pockets of a few oil executives.
Brad Bender 99 TR/Tan 75k welded
That type of raise wouldn't be bad if it were for any pay period less than a
month.
Paul L Fisher
My understanding is that the refining capacity in the U.S. is maxed out and
this affects the price. And there are obstacles to building new refineries.
I've never been to Europe but it seems that everything is high there. Their
economics baffle me- the average worker there seems to take much more
vacation time than I do which would seem to affect their productivity. I
don't know if that is why their gas is $5 a gallon or not.
I turned 16 in 1970. I ordered a new Corvette in 1975. I optioned it the
way I would like in order to keep it for 30 years- 4-speed, heavy
suspension, highest horsepower 350 with forged crank and 4-bolt mains,
leather seats. It was a great car but only lasted until I got married. I
ordered a new Camaro in 1978 for my wife. It lasted until the gas crisis in
about 1980, when it got replaced with a 1980 Citation and my 1973 454 pickup
got replaced with a 1973 Datsun 1600. It was great fun picking out the
options from the long list. I've never tried to do it since and didn't even
think that you could anymore.
Actually I tried to order a new Citation in 1980, but at the height of the
gas crisis it seems that as soon as our car came in the nice dealer sold it
to someone else for more money.
I had a friend who ordered a 1966 Chevrolet Impala with a 425 hp 427 and
4-speed transmission. I'm not sure but maybe that engine wasn't on the
regular order blank. That would be a good car to have right now, if a
person could find one hiding in a barn somewhere.
I don't know if you ever ordered a new car back then, but the options
lists ran to a few pages. In hindsight, it was an inefficient way to build cars.'d take it monthly on my base just the same!
Rayn the broke