new 3/12/03, updated 3/13/03
Take a big pond, lake or sea.
It takes a lot of little fish to keep the big fish alive. If all the little fish die off the big fish will soon die as well. Sharks quit eating only when they are dead or run out of food.
I wonder if the plague of cam failures is all but over? If mean time to failure is 75k +/- 25k then all that should be left is a small number of 97's a few 98's and mostly 99's. There were 4-5 gen 3 SHOs in my town, but I haven't seen any in months.
We have only 2 failures so far this month, down from one a day.
Say there are 4000 gen 3's totaled do to wrecks. Less than 500-600 welded or pinned cars. Maybe another 2,000 Gen 3 that haven't failed (yet)
I wonder if there isn't 12,000 or 13,000 gen 3 SHOs out there with a dead engine, or in a junk yard? We don't get any more reports because all the little fish are gone?
We guess for every report we list 10 folks don't know about V8SHO. What if the number is more like 50 to 1?
When I quit getting reports of cam failures that is also scary. Two failures in twelve days isn't a long term trend but if it continues it is a very bad omen if the trend continues for a month.
18 days till TREAD LAW act takes effect, we may know soon just how bad this really is. Ford may do a recall in a few months but we (V8SHOs) were born an endangered species and by the time that recall happens I predict there will not be enough unwelded no failure cars in all North America to fill a Wal-Mart parking lot.
If the war was to avert the extinction of an American performance sedan, the war may be over and we lost the war. We need not lose the peace.
The clean-up isn't over yet, that will happen in the courts. And I am in an ecological car hugging mood. How will history record this chapter of Ford performance? I have to say I think we did our part and did it as well as we could. Ford dropped the ball in every respect.
How is it I didn't even visit a carpet store and still ended up the remnant?
Ford may be correct about this being rare, are all our cars dead? Are you also the only gen 3 left in your town?
Buford
Am I the only one who thinks that these numbers are a little off? I'm not trying to start a flame war but I am just questioning. I also know Tim is just speculating but this speculation seems to be a little erroneous. 4,000 wrecked Gen III SHO's? That number seems extremely high to me...unless you have evidence? And, IMHO, there is not 12,000 to 13,000 dead Gen III SHO's out there with a cam failure! If someone's car dies, especially in the magnitude that you are proposing, they are not going to go "Oh well." They will look for some sort of information with most going to the internet. We have ~220 reported failures with the number slowing down every day, not even close to the 13000 mark. As it stands, that's right about 1% of the cars that have had problems. Given that, I understand that there are some cars that we do not know about and the % could be off a little. Where am I going with all this? Yes I believe this problem is real but not in the magnitude that is proposed here. Opinions welcome!
Greg
97 TR SHO
Okay, let me throw this out there then. I live in a small town of 80,000 (grew up in a suburb of Chicago bigger than this place). I personally know of 4 Gen 3 SHO's sitting in yards and garages for at least 6 months because these people cannot afford the repair. I also know that there are 3 in just one of the salvage yards right here too. When I bought my SHO I had seen 12 different Gen 3's in town, I now only see 3. I am not flaming anybody but of the 12 I talked to with Gen 3's only 2 knew anything about V8SHO.com and only 1 of them knew about the cam issue. That one blew his cam sprocket up on the way to FPS. He can't afford the repair now. 80% have no idea, 33% wrecked, another 33% blown and one welded (mine).
Carter Fuji
Just another former customer and millions of Fords dollars
'97 ES Whoosh
Greenwood, AR.
Yes this is pure speculation on my part based on only two weeks of data. It is an invitation to dialogue, which I am very willing to post here.- thanks, Buford
BTW Carter, 80% + 33% + 33% ~ ?? - are we over budget?
Tim:
I'm wondering if perhaps some of the more recent auto-related media exposure may be slowing people in getting to V8SHO.com, and registering? In other words, they are getting sidetracked before they ever get here to make a report for the database.
Additionally, right now as a country we have some pretty big distractions - people are distracted by Iraq, the stock market, and gasoline prices. It isn't that reporting to the database isn't important - but it's easily lost and/or overlooked.
Plus, there is always a "silent sector"; the people who will never speak up, never report their problem, just shrug and go on. Maybe they can't be bothered, maybe they believe that their report won't change anything, maybe they are just not interested. (I know, it's hard to understand, but there are people who are that way... we just haven't been able to reprogram them... yet... ;)
Our car was fine at 107K when we had our little "mini-Okie-camfest" last weekend. It may be possible that there is a large number of these cars out there that have simply not had the problem... yet. In that sense, I suppose they are like rolling time bombs; since there seems to be no real rhyme or reason why one fails at a certain mileage, and another sails on past for 10K, 20K, 30K or more miles.
It's pretty interesting to me that in the greater Tulsa Metro area, I'm not finding too many SHO's in the salvage yards. Any year, any Gen. I don't think the cars you are looking for are in the salvage yards - I think they are on the streets. And their owners will likely never know that V8SHO.com exists until there is a problem, and they begin to search the Internet for information.
I think you will never get a certain percentage of already failed cams to be reported.
I think you will never get a certain percentage of current/future cam failures to be reported.
I also think that there may be a MUCH greater percentage of these cars out there than we believe that are still running, and driving and (seemingly) just fine.
I don't know what formula you should use to correctly predict the number of failed/failing/soon-to-fail cams. :(
When Ford orphaned the SHO, we didn't become remnants without a visit to the carpet store, we became citizens without a nation... And regardless of how Ford ultimately handles this issue, I'm still glad I have my car. We are in an elite class of car owners; those who have the joy of driving a car they love every day.
Sarah :)
(who thinks maybe she should have named her car "Zingo" after the roller coaster ride at the local amusement park, cuz it's just that much fun!)
Sarah Locker
'97 Performance White 107k aka "SHO White"
w/ Freshly Welded Cams for my Driving Pleasure ;)
Have you seen a LockerSHO today?
AWA of Chuck Jr, '91 Mocha Frost
DIL of Chuck Sr, '99 Black
SIL of Holly Bailey, '96 Willow Green
SIL of Chris '98 Red
HS (Honorary Sister) of Kirk Doucette '97 White StormTrooper
Ok I have had time to ponder this.
"I wonder if there isn't 12,000 or 13,000 GEN III SHOs out there with a dead engine, or in a junk yard? We don't get any more reports because all the little fish are gone?"
IMHO it is mathematically unlikely that this can be supported with evidence. That being said, Carter makes a good point, although he was tired from chasing butterflies when he did it. (consequently the funny math)
He lives in a town with a population of 80,000 folks (not even a big suburb in Chicago) out of the 12 Gen III's that were there evidently there when he first arrived, many are AWOL and accounted for in scrap yards.
I can't for a moment buy that as my statistical base, but in the hey let's just suppose world it's kind of enlightening.
My worse fear has unchanged since the day we filed the action against Ford. When we poll the nation by VIN will we find that perhaps Carter's math is not so far from the truth.
We also know that people have suffered unimaginable economic ruin because of the fatal flaw of the GEN III. We know and can substantiate not only economic ruin, but emotional and family ruin because of Ford's "mistake."
Is their truly a "value" that can be attached to this?? In the legal world it's called pain and suffering. In the real world it's called many other things, most of which cannot be publicly posted.
In Tim's scenario of fish, we are quickly becoming plankton.
No matter our family squabbles one thing has to remain a constant. We have to remain diligent, tight, and PO'd that any American Car Maker would think for a moment they can do this and get away with it.
I can't imagine how Tim has coped since this first reared it's ugly head. I speak with these people, and as crusty as I may be, my heart goes out to them.
The most recent conversation with Chris just last evening reaffirmed my belief that we must continue.
The big fish always has a natural predator in the greater scheme of things. Hopefully, IMHO, in this case it will ultimately be Truth. It's a heavy sword and must be wielded carefully, but that is why we have Dan Edelman, and Jennifer.
Let's keep the family squabbles manageable, and funny, but not lose track of the bigger picture, we are a dwindling family.
Every sound of Taps for a GEN III is a sound we should all mourn.
This is sent to you O/L If you wish to post it both to list and V8 my blessings.
I am now relegated to the pain and suffering of My Fair Lady. It sucked 32 years ago and still sucks. Thanks Buford----I know where you live.
I will be at Eric's tomorrow observing a cam weld for my own enlightenment.
If you must, call tomorrow. I'm toast now.
Hope all this makes sense, if not ring once and hang up. I'll call you back - Bubs has been over the top and just fell asleep. Ring my cell once BTW.
Not bad for an old guy eh??
Larry E
97TR
Mods
We are all speculating, Sarah wisely observed there is a lot more going on in
the world right now than our problem. We can honestly say we filed as a last
resort because it was the only way to get Ford to be straight up with us. The
only more notorious management has 300,000 American troops on the border. Sure
inspections work, after the war. I'll trust Ford, maybe after discovery.
And of course your all bollixed up with that sword of truth thing. Your on the
wrong end of the problem with the wrong tool. If we want to get Ford to
pay attention and tell the truth do a google search for "Veterinary
Tools"
Their hearts and minds will follow.
Tim